Do stem cells work as a wedge?
Posted by Jesse Reynolds October 27, 2006
Biopolitical Times
Leading into the midterm elections, many saw support for stem cell research as a way for Democrats to peel off moderate Republicans and independents. The jury's still out, but some polls suggest this assumption is off base.
Early in her Senate campaign, Missouri Democrat Claire McCaskill played the stem cell issue big. Earlier this month, she appeared to be backing off. Polling might confirm the wisdom of that decision. In the past two weeks, the margin of support for Missouri's stem cell amendment has dropped by 21 points. In the same time, the state's Senate race has moved by twelve points, from McCaskill up by 9 to her Republican opponent leading by 3. SurveyUSA elaborates:
Early in her Senate campaign, Missouri Democrat Claire McCaskill played the stem cell issue big. Earlier this month, she appeared to be backing off. Polling might confirm the wisdom of that decision. In the past two weeks, the margin of support for Missouri's stem cell amendment has dropped by 21 points. In the same time, the state's Senate race has moved by twelve points, from McCaskill up by 9 to her Republican opponent leading by 3. SurveyUSA elaborates:
On 10/21/06, the first day of the field period for this survey, McCaskill began airing a TV commercial that featured the actor Michael J Fox, who suffers from Parkinson's disease. There is no way to estimate, or even guess at, whether this advertisement had an impact on the numbers that SurveyUSA reports today. SurveyUSA will make note, however, that the interviews for a competing poll released today by Mason-Dixon, which show McCaskill ahead by 3 points, were completed on 10/19, before the Michael J Fox advertisement aired. It is unclear if the airing of the Fox ad is entirely coincidental to the movement observed here by SurveyUSA, or if there is some relationship.
Many other factors were simultaneously at work in Missouri, including a tougher, more aggressive stance taken by Talent in his debate appearances with McCaskill, and advertisements taken out by Talent attacking McCaskill. Those factors acknowledged, Talent did better day-by-day in this survey, from Minus 1 on Saturday 10/21, to Plus 5 on Sunday 10/22, to Plus 7 on Monday 10/23. When the 3 days of interviewing are averaged, Talent is up 3 points, which are the results SurveyUSA presents here.